Friday Morning Update
Today’s storms will be a bit different in their development than what we witnessed yesterday. Let’s chat about the recap!
Yesterday and today we had what is called a cap in the atmosphere. A cap is what prevents the warm, moist air from rising to meet the fuel source higher up in the atmosphere.
This atmospheric feature is basically like a pot of water boiling on a stove with a lid on. When you take the lid off of the pot, the water is allowed to boil over and the steam rises higher. This is what happens when the cap breaks, the lid is taken off of the pot.
In order to take the “atmospheric lid” off of the pot, we need something that is a strong forcing mechanism. Today we have a cold front that will do exactly that. Yesterday, we relied on daytime heating alone to break the cap, which was unsuccessful due to the lack of energy.
Today not only are we watching for those strong storms, but dangerous heat as well. A heat advisory has been issued for portions of Southside and Lynchburg Zones until 8 PM Friday night.
Thanks to the heat, humidity and strong cold front, the same threats for yesterday are still in play today. A slight risk has been expanded to the entirety of the viewing area.
The more concerning threats will be wind and hail damage, as hail could reach up to 1″ in diameter.
Please stay weather aware today and download the weather authority mobile app to have weather alerts sent to your device!
Thursday Morning Update
This afternoon kicks off our severe risk. The threats we are watching for include damaging winds, hail, flash flooding, and a very small tornado threat.
Hail, wind damage, and flash flooding are the most concerning of these threats. Power outages are possible because of the wind threat.
It is a good idea to plug in extra batteries and have the flashlight ready just in case of a power failure this afternoon or evening.
The slight risk from the SPC has been moved a bit further north. However, the entirety of the viewing area is included in at least that marginal or slight risk. The slight risk area will have the better chance to see those strong to severe storms this afternoon.
Futurecast shows these isolated strong storms pick up in speed around, I believe, around 5 PM. This futurecast model shows 8 PM. This particular model is typically around 2-3 hours late.
Be sure to stay weather aware today and download our weather authority mobile app for any updates and NWS alerts. These alerts will be sent out directly when hose watches and warnings are issued.
Wednesday Evening Update:
Some slight changes have happened in ,terms of our severe risk.
Heading into tomorrow, the level 2 of 5 risk has shifted more northward. This will mean that these areas will have a higher likelihood of having any storm cells that occur develop into severe ones.
Friday on the other hand, had the opposite effect. Now, the risk has shifted and expanded southward and includes all of our area in the 2 out of 5 risk. Between tomorrow and Friday, Friday will still have the most widespread of impacts, including a higher chance of seeing hail.
Alongside the storms, temperatures and humidity will be up. Areas in the Lynchburg and Southside could experience heat indices in the triple digits, with the Highlands and the Roanoke Valley toeing the line.
Wednesday Morning:
A Weather Authority Alert Day has been issued for June 11th and 12th for the risk of strong storms throughout the region.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a slight and marginal risk for strong to severe storms both Thursday and Friday.
The main threats with these storms will be damaging wind, hail, and heavy rainfall; however, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out entirely.
Portions of all 5 zones are included in the 15% probability of wind damage, with southern portions of NRV and Southside in the 5% risk area.
The hail risk will also be on the map for Thursday and Friday, with the entirety of the viewing area in that 5% risk zone for hail damage.
Some of these storms that pop up both Thursday and Friday will start out quite isolated. In this case, there is a better chance of rotation and the storm being able to quickly strengthen when these storms form as loners.
Thursday, as these storms fire off, a small tornado threat can not be ruled out for the Highlands Zone, especially. The threat is very small, but not zero.
Each day, storms will fire up in the afternoon and evening. The start time is looking to be around 1-3 PM on Thursday and 2-4 PM on Friday.
Be sure to stay weather aware and download the Weather Authority mobile app to have alerts sent directly to your phone when any warnings are issued.