ROANOKE, Va. – Monday Night Update
This WAAD has been cleared.
Monday Evening Update
The bulk of the precipitation has now moved into the Southside and Lynchburg Zone, with no severe watches or warnings as of 6:21PM.
Temperatures have been rain-cooled across the entirety of the viewing area.
Rain totals as of 6:30 this evening are highest in the New River Valley and lower in the Southside Zone.
We are still watching a line of showers in North Carolina that will soon move into Southwest and Central Virginia. Fortunately, the bulk of the precipitation is out of our area for now!
Monday Morning Update
After severe storms ravaged parts of the Midwest on Sunday, that same system will track into our region Monday. Damaging winds of more than 70 MPH remain the primary concern, but we cannot rule out the chance of hail or a tornado either.
The good news with this system is that our tornado threat has dropped a tad, with a bit more cloud cover expected than what models and data were initially hinting at. However, there is still a threat for tornado development.
This system passes through our viewing area between 1 and 5 p.m. on Monday, which coincides with the time we can expect our greatest daytime heating.
We’ll continue to update you online and on air as this system progresses.
Sunday Evening Update
We are expecting two lines of showers and storms tomorrow. The first line will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds from 5AM to 12PM, the second line may bring damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes from 2PM to 9PM.
Areas east of I-81 are under an enhanced risk (Level 3/5) with the remainder of the viewing area in a slight risk (Level 2/5.)
This map from the SPC is showing the percent chance of a tornado within a 25-mile point. Highlighted in yellow, is a 10% chance, red signifying a 5% chance, and in green is a 2% chance.
Be sure to have a way to hear warnings Monday afternoon when they are issued and stay weather-aware!
Sunday Morning Update
Storm timing has shifted to occur later in the afternoon tomorrow, meaning a lot of these storms could form during peak hours of daytime heating. That has led the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to upgrade our severe risk to an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for areas east of I-81. That enhanced risk is primarily to account for an increased risk of tornadic development in the afternoon. Damaging winds are still going to be the most widespread concern, but there is now an increased risk for tornado development and large hail compared to what we were seeing yesterday, when the arrival of the front was expected earlier in the day.
The primary area of concern for tornadic development comes within the Piedmont region of the state, as that will be where we see the most ample energy within our region. It is possible there is some embedded rotation within the main line of storms, but the storms with the greatest chances of producing a tornado will come ahead of the front, and operate in a more isolated manner.
The morning will start out with showers, and perhaps some heavier bands of rain, before shifting to a severe thunderstorm risk in the early afternoon, and lasting until sundown.
Not everyone WILL receive severe thunderstorms, but the entirety of our viewing area COULD easily experience severe weather. One thing to note is that short-term weather models are hinting there could be some of a dry slot that forms around the time of the frontal passage. Should this happen, it could increase more solar energy hitting the surface, and prolong the severe threat into the evening hours.
This system appears more conducive for severe weather compared to the past systems we have seen this year. Certainly stay tuned as we continue to update you with more developments.
Saturday Evening Update
All threats are in play during storms on Monday. While high winds and localized flooding are the highest threats, power outages and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.
Rain will begin as early as 5 AM on Monday. The first line of showers and storms will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Off and on rain will continue throughout the afternoon as the front moves closer to southwest and central Virginia.
Behind the front, discrete supercells are possible which may have the capability of producing tornadoes. The window for these isolated showers and storms will be from 4-10 PM5 AM.
10 PM
A cold front will sweep through the area on Monday, bringing multiple thunderstorms along the east coast. Due to this, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe weather.
With ample moisture and solar energy fueling storm development, a cold front passing through the area will help spark a line of thunderstorms from the Northeast to the Gulf Coast. While the Southeast has the greatest chance for supercells, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities we could see a few within Virginia.
The greatest impact of these storms occur between 11 AM and 4 PM, with the greatest threat being damaging winds. We can’t rule out the chance for hail or tornadoes, particularly in the central part of the state.
As always, we’ll continue to keep you updated online and on air with any developments.
