Roanoke, VA – Saturday Evening Update
In the Storm Prediction Center’s most recent update, the slight risk area (2/5 risk level) has been changed to include the southern portions of the New River Valley, Roanoke Valley, and Southside. This area is of particular concern for all threats in play for Sunday.
The main concern will be damaging wind gusts, as well as localized flash flooding. 1-2″ of total rainfall accumulation is expected by the end of the weekend.
Winds will be howling by 2PM on Sunday, some portions of the viewing area will near the 50MPH mark. If you have any unsecured light objects like Christmas decorations or lawn furniture outdoors, be sure to secure them. Unsecured light objects can easily become projectiles during these conditions.
Widespread rainfall will arrive by 8-9AM in the NRV, with rainfall becoming heavy at times. The window for strong to severe thunderstorms will be from 10AM-4PM.
Be sure to stay weather-aware throughout the day tomorrow!
It isn’t often that you see thunderstorms in December, but it is certainly possible. That will be the case Sunday, as we are watching for the risk of potentially severe thunderstorm development throughout the day. Some storms will be capable of damaging winds and frequent downpours. While the risk for hail and tornadoes is very low, there is a non-zero chance of tornadic development. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2/5) to account for these risks on Sunday. For those reasons, we’ve issued a Weather Authority Alert Day for Sunday.
Ample moisture and low level shear are the primary drivers for this system tomorrow, meaning that winds could gust in excess of 60 MPH later in the afternoon. A warm front will pass through the area, bringing those 60 degree temperatures along with it. That warmer air is going to be the primary reason we see any kind of thunderstorm development, as these conditions are usually what you see in March or April. Overcast skies will limit the amount of instability within the atmosphere, which in turn limits the chance for tornadic activity and hail.
Rain continues throughout the day Saturday and into Sunday, increasing in intensity Sunday afternoon and evening. This heavier rain coincides with the strong winds in the region. The strongest storms appear likely to form between 2-6 PM on Sunday, and will clear out in the evening hours. Southside Virginia has the greatest chance for seeing these stronger storms, with higher elevations likely to experience some of the greatest wind speeds. By the time this event is over, it is likely that we will have seen 2-3″ of rain, with locally greater amounts possible.
Be sure to have several ways to receive weather alerts, and be mindful if traveling this weekend. Roads will be slick, with fog and heavy rain limiting visibility. Secure any loose outdoor belongings, as winds will be strong enough to blow around any loose items.
As usual, we will continue to update you with developments. Download our weather app for alerts as soon as they are issued and updates from the team.