ROANOKE, Va. – Historically, La Nina years bring the best of both worlds. However, snowfall on Christmas day has been hit or miss.
During the last 5 La Nina winters, only 1 has produced measurable snowfall on Christmas Day, 2017. That time around we saw 0.5 inches of snow on the Holiday.
As we look ahead to Christmas Day this year, we have to analyze the temperature trend leading up to it. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts warmer than average temperatures for the week prior.
Eventually, the warmer pattern looks to recede during the week of Christmas. Near average temperatures are expected during this timeframe.
For reference, the average high temperature on Christmas Day is 45.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
Something else important to the equation is precipitation! Without it, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.
Unfortunately, the Climate Prediction Center indicates below average precipitation during this timeframe. For the optimists out there, lesser than average does not mean zero! So, our chances are not completely diminished.
This begs the question ‘What does history say?’. Well, based on historical data since 1991 the odds are pretty low.
In fact, the odds are somewhere between 0 and 25 percent.
Given the trend in temperatures, and the expected lack of precipitation it is reasonably safe to say this year’s Christmas will not feature snow.
Like you, I would love be wrong about this! Afterall, we are still 2 weeks away, and plenty could change by then!
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