ROANOKE, Va. – After slowly making its way through unfavorable conditions, Tropical Storm Debby has made its way into more favorable conditions, and is soon expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall. Debby is likely to make landfall late Sunday night into early Monday.
As of 5 p.m. Sunday, this is the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
This storm is continuing to move N at about 12 MPH, and is likely to strengthen before making landfall.
Several hurricane, tropical storm, storm surge, and flood alerts have been issued for the western side of Florida, and continue into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tampa, Tallahassee, Valdosta, Savannah, and Charleston are notable areas currently under some form of a tropical alert. I can guarantee you more alerts will be issued, especially with the potential for record rainfall that could cause instances of significant flooding. Parts of Northern Florida could also see the risk of some tornadoes over the next two days. Due to this, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts of Florida under a slight risk for severe weather for the next two days.
Right now, most models are in agreement that this storm will stall somewhere near the border between Georgia and South Carolina. Flooding, particularly in coastal regions, is my biggest area of concern with this storm. It is likely we could see places such as Savannah, Hilton Head, and Charleston receive over 20″ of rain over the next 7 days, with localized amounts of over two FEET possible.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a High Risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday. The last time a high risk was issued on the east coast- July 10, 2023 in Vermont. The last time the Southeast experienced a High Risk of excessive rainfall was September 30, 2022, when Hurricane Ian hammered the Southeast with torrential rain and devastating flooding.
While High Risk days have only been issued by the WPC around 4% of days from 2010-2022, they’ve accounted for over 1/3 of all flood related fatalities and 4/5 of all flood related damages.
Debby begins to slow down, and eventually stall Tuesday afternoon roughly over Savannah, GA. It’ll slowly meander north and remain over the coast of South Carolina until Friday. This is when the forecast gets to be a bit more complicated, and is heavily dependent upon upper level winds steering Debby. At this point, Debby will resume moving north into central North Carolina. The part of this forecast that remains murkiest is how far west Debby will go in the Mid-Atlantic. Currently, the European Model (ECMWF Model) places the center of the storm over the I-64 East corridor around Williamsburg, VA.
However, models are beginning to hint at a slightly more westward path for this storm. This will heavily depend on the strength of the Bermuda-Azores High pressure system located over the western Atlantic Ocean.
To break the impact Debby could have on Virginia, we can break this forecast down into two outcomes. Outcome 1 is that Debby stays EAST of the I-95 corridor. Outcome 2 is that Debby shifts to the WEST of the I-95 corridor. Either way, we are likely to see some extent of Debby starting Thursday and lasting
IF DEBBY STAYS EAST-
An eastern track would mean much more rain for the Virginia Beach area and the Outer Banks in North Carolina. Southwest Virginia would be on the western side of this storm, meaning we would experience less rain and slower winds. The threat for severe weather would be confined to areas east of I-95, and there would less of a severe weather risk for us with this outcome.
IF DEBBY SHIFTS WEST-
Should Debby’s track shift west of I-95, it would mean more widespread rain for the entire state. Southwest Virginia would be looking at more rain, and gustier winds with a closer proximity to the center of the storm. This outcome would increase the threat of severe weather further inland, rather than limiting it to coastal regions.
Overall, this storm will be a significant rainmaker along the coast, regardless of its strength. We could be looking at historic flooding along the Carolina coast when all is said and done.
Remember, it is always better to be overprepared for an event, than to be caught unprepared. Misinformation about this storm has been rampant on social media, so be sure you are receiving reliable information, such as from Your Local Weather Authority, another local station, NOAA and your local National Weather Service office, or another reputable source for weather information. Misinformation can be dangerous as a storm itself.
We’ll continue to keep you updated throughout the duration of this storm.