ROANOKE, Va. – 11 a.m. Update Monday
Lee is still a Category 3 hurricane northeast of places like Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. It is forecast to curve north by mid-week.
Cape Cod, Massachusetts is officially in the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center.
5 a.m. Update Monday
Hurricane Lee underwent rapid intensification last week, going from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in roughly 24 hours. It then weakened due to wind shear and dry air entering the storm’s center of circulation.
Now, Lee is back to its old antics as a major hurricane northeast of Puerto Rico.
The storm will be steered northward throughout the week, potentially making landfall near Maine or the maritime provinces of Canada by the weekend.
8 a.m. Update Thursday
Lee is now a Hurricane heading west/northwest. While it’s still too soon to say if it affects Virginia or even the US be sure to check in with us as the storm gets closer.
5 a.m. Update Wednesday
Lee is a strong tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles as of 5 a.m. Wednesday.
There has been a lot of (premature) hype regarding Tropical Storm Lee on social media platforms.
Yes, this will be a major hurricane in the coming days. No, we don’t know exactly where it will go 7-10 days from now.
The social media hype train has gotten out of control this hurricane season. Let's set realistic expectations for Tropical Storm Lee.
— Chris Michaels (@WSLS_Michaels) September 6, 2023
Will it be a major storm? Yes. Do we know where exactly it'll be 7-10 days from now? No.
Here's a breakdown. H/T @wxbrad for graphic inspiration pic.twitter.com/x1e9AMaDPH
5 p.m. Update - Tuesday
The official peak of Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, and that is when a major hurricane is forecast to be north of Puerto Rico.
This comes as Tropical Storm Lee formed Tuesday afternoon. It will take the path of least resistance toward becoming the season’s third major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic basin.
The question obviously becomes, “what’s in store for the U.S.?”
The frustrating reality is that - as good as hurricane forecasting has become - nailing down a location for something 8-11 days from now is virtually impossible. What we can do is look at the global pattern to see a potential long-range path.
Most forecast data show an area of high pressure over the North Atlantic. Clockwise flow would try to throw the storm toward the East Coast.
On the other hand, this same data shows low pressure over the Eastern U.S.
Counter-clockwise flow would then try to push the storm away from the East Coast. It all depends on the speed and location of that system, though.
If you have plans to be at the beach for the weekend of September 8-10, you’re good to go as far as tropical systems are concerned.
Any potential impact from this system wouldn’t be until 8-11 days from now.
Current forecast data suggests a curve north toward Bermuda, but anything is far from set in stone when looking that far down the road.