Tropics Update: SoCal may sees first-ever Tropical Storm Watch; four storms in the Atlantic

ROANOKE, Va. – 11:00 a.m. Friday Update

For the first time in history, the National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California. This area is not accustomed to the inches of rain that Hilary will bring over the weekend.

While this storm won’t impact us, there are now four storms in the Atlantic Basin that are being monitored for potential development.

We don’t expect immediate impacts, but we’ll be monitoring any system that develops this season for coastal and/or inland impacts.

Pacific Ocean

World War II officially started in 1939. That September was the last time Southern California took a direct hit from a tropical system.

Fast-forward 84 years, and Hilary has its sights set on SoCal.

Thursday’s 8 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm making landfall Sunday night as a tropical storm.

This would drop several inches of rain on areas east of Los Angeles through Monday.

A strong area of high pressure over the Upper Midwest will keep the storm far away from us and—quite frankly—keeps most tangible rain away from Southwest Virginia through at least the middle of next week.

Atlantic Ocean

Things are starting to pick up in the Atlantic Basin too, though nothing appears imminent in our area or along the East Coast.

There are three areas of possible development.

One in the Gulf has a 30% chance of becoming a named storm. Two others in the open Atlantic have a 60% chance of becoming a named storm within the next week.

One of the roadblocks for tropical systems within the next week or so is the Saharan Dust.

Plumes from the Sahara Desert eject into the Atlantic a few times a year, and they can limit tropical development by choking off any moisture.

Aside from that, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration actually increased its forecast for the remainder of the Atlantic tropical season.

The peak for hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin usually falls between August 20 and mid-October.

One of the reasons for the increased forecast is record ocean temperatures in parts of the Atlantic. In order for hurricanes to form, ocean waters need to be at least 80°F.

Though nothing is imminent in our area, we know the inland effects from tropical systems.

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