ROANOKE, Va. – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking a couple of areas for tropical development. As of now, there is no threat to the United States.
A massive tropical wave is coming off the west coast of Africa. The NHC is monitoring the progression of this wave and expects there to be two areas favorable for tropical development. One is given a 50% chance of development in the next 7 days, the other - 40%.
The NHC is also monitoring an area in the Gulf of Mexico. All gulf coast states should keep an eye out on this area. For more information and daily updates visit the NHC’s website.
We will have to keep an eye on all three areas of interest as we are getting closer to the peak of Hurricane Season and development is becoming more favorable.
Statistically and Climatologically speaking, the peak of Hurricane Season is September 10. We are getting closer and closer to this date. While a storm can develop at any point in the season (June 1 - November 30), the most likely time for tropical development is during the months of August, September, and October.
A large plume of Saharan dust is currently dominating a lot of the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. While the dust suppresses tropical development, these conditions are expected to change.
Because of the large tropical wave that is exiting Africa and moving into the eastern Atlantic, there is likely to be a negation of Saharan dust for a little while. More moisture is expected to enter multiple layers of the troposphere over the Atlantic and drier air is expected to subside. This will allow for favorable conditions to develop in the coming week. Hence, the areas of development in 7 days’ time.
Sea surface temperatures have been a talking point these past couple of months. They have been in the upper 80s and low 90s for the majority of Summer, but no tropical development has been able to occur due to a number of factors thus far (El Nino development, Saharan Dust, etc.). While tropical development takes many criteria to occur, SSTs are currently more than favorable.
While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet, the Pacific has been fairly active, to say the least. There are currently 3 tropical storms (Tropical Storm Greg, Fernanda, and Hilary. Pictured left to right) churning away in the eastern portions of the Pacific Ocean.
The two most western systems are not a current threat to land. However, Tropical Storm Hilary could pose a threat to parts of Mexico and possibly the west coast of the United States.
For more information on all tropical development and hurricanes, you can visit the Atlantic section of the NHC or the Pacific section.