ROANOKE, Va. – Experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an updated forecast for the remainder of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
In it, they now mostly expect above-average activity.
NOAA predicts 14-21 total named storms, 6-11 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes (storms that reach Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
They say this is mostly in part to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin.
Ocean waters need to be 80°F, and that warmth needs to extend deep into the ocean, for hurricanes to form.
One would shudder at the idea of a hurricane off the Gulf Coast of Florida, where multiple buoys are reporting temperatures at or above 90°.
Combatting that ocean warmth, however, is the growing presence of El Niño.
This phenomenon, while based in the Pacific, is largely responsible for harsh differences in the wind that can tear apart tropical systems in the Atlantic. These changes associated with El Niño are expected to happen later in the year, according to NOAA.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is a little over two-months old. Thankfully, we’ve not seen a US-landfalling system so far this season. We hope for that trend to continue.
We have made it to ‘D’ in the list of names. ‘Emily’ would be the next storm in line.
The peak of Atlantic hurricane season generally runs from late August through mid-October, so the lack of activity thus far shouldn’t necessarily give cause for complacency.
That’s even the case this far inland.