ROANOKE, Va. – As we go throughout the day we will warm up to the upper 80s and cloudy skies will slowly wither away.
Later on, mainly our central and western zones will have a good chance at seeing severe weather.
Eastern portions of Lynchburg and Southside are under an enhanced risk for severe weather this afternoon (level 3/5) and our interior counties are under a slight risk for severe weather (level 2/5). North and west of i-81 can see isolated storms later on as the risk in these areas is marginal (level 1/5).
The severe threat for today comes with the opportunity to see gusty winds, hail, and pockets of heavy rain throughout west central Virginia.
An upper level trough that will interact with high values of energy in the atmosphere at mid-levels is the culprit for today’s activities.
While today’s threat is primarily damaging winds and opportunities to see hail, we can’t rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado or localized flooding.
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Because of all the rainfall we received last week, some areas could see some localized flooding if rainfall amounts add up throughout the day.
This threat will carry over tonight as a front will move in behind and after the severe weather. Tomorrow also offers the chance at seeing some isolated storms.
The Timing
By 2pm, we should start to see some showers pop-up with some going severe in the hours following. Below is a look at 4pm when a line of thundershowers starts to develop. At first, it won’t be organized, but once it gets itself together we could see a high probability of gusty and damaging winds with localized heavy rainfall.
Hail could be embedded in this line of storms throughout the process of coming together.
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Your Local Weather Authority is tracking storms threats this afternoon. Below depicts the threats we could see and how likely it is we see them.
Hail will be isolated to specific areas, particularly those with a higher risk this afternoon (level 2/5 and 3/5). Damaging winds could be seen in single cell storms that develop early and along the complex line of storms that develop later on. Lightning will be included within these storms and we aren’t expecting the threat for tornados, but we can’t rule out the possibility of seeing any.
Today’s high temperatures cap off around the mid to upper 80s in most zones, but depending on the timing of storms we could see temperatures just shy of those forecasted.
These hot temperatures and dewpoints (in the 60s) will be the fuel for our severe weather threat for today.