Happy Monday and welcome to another edition of Beyond The Forecast!
Our yearly Winter Weather Outlook comes out on Thursday. We will be releasing our preseason forecast for the winter ahead, breaking down snowfall totals zone-by-zone.
Recommended Videos
As part of the special, each meteorologist (Jeff Haniewich, Chris Michaels, Marshall Downing and myself) pick one aspect of the forecast to explain in greater detail.
I chose to look into the snowfall climatology of the area and answered the question: Does it snow less than it used to?
Well, statistically the answer is yes. We may need to rethink what we consider an average snowfall to be in our corner of the Commonwealth.
The long-term average snowfall for Roanoke is 18.5 inches. If you narrow the timeframe to just the past 30 years, it’s around 13 inches. We see similar decreases in the averages across the region.
While the snowiest winter on record did happen within the last 30 years, the long-term average is skewed by other big snows in the historical record. Roanoke’s climate data stretches back to the winter of 1911-1912.
There are fewer big snow outliers accounted for in the 30-year average. The last big snow happened in 2010, so it’s still possible that we have to shovel more.
The big snow years are becoming few and far between as the climate changes.
Climate Central found that many southern cities are enjoying less snow over time.
Overall, 46% of the climate sites analyzed across the country have a decreasing snowfall trend in the wintertime.
I will have more coverage on our area’s snowfall climatology, plus you’ll get our seasonal snowfall forecast when the Winter Weather Outlook premieres Thursday.
It will air during our 6 p.m. newscast.
Speaking of winter weather, the National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for some areas Tuesday. Meteorologist Chris Michaels has a look at what we expect from the next storm system in our daily forecast article.
You can always get specific forecast details for your zone, whether it’s the Roanoke Valley, Southside, the Highlands, or elsewhere around Southwest and Central Virginia, anytime at WSLS.com/weather. Know your zone!
In case you missed it, we’re posting great weather and science content on WSLS.com. Here are a few links from the past week to check out:
If you prefer your weather information delivered by social media, you can follow Your Local Weather Authority on Facebook and Twitter.
You can also keep up with me on social media. I’m on Facebook and Twitter follow along!
– Justin McKee