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10 days away! What are the odds of a White Christmas?

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Let’s see if that means snow for Santa.

Nick Ferra - Pembroke (Copyright 2020 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

ROANOKE, Va. – Last year was a Christmas miracle for snow-lovers in our area. So many of you sent us pictures of the Winter Wonderland that came in during the night before Christmas in 2020.

We have that photo gallery for you to look back on right here.

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This year looks like a different story, though.

While we won’t see record-breaking warmth, it appears as though the jet stream will stay far north and west enough to keep the bulk of cold air and storminess away from here. The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook shows drier than average weather in the days leading up to Santa’s arrival.

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook through Christmas 2021

When looking at a group of forecast data, the chance of a White Christmas (1″ of snow falling or on the ground on Christmas Day) is slim to none in our area. You really have to go to the Rockies, the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada to see any chance of that. Some of the Great Lakes region stands that chance too.

Chance of a White Christmas in 2021

This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. When looking back at historical data across all five of our zones, a White Christmas happens more in Bing Crosby’s dreams than in southwest and central Virginia.

Historically/statistically speaking, a White Christmas happens once every five years in Hot Springs, once every six years in Blacksburg, once every eight years in Roanoke and Lynchburg and once every 16 years in Danville.

Historical probability of a White Christmas