ROANOKE, Va. – It’s that time of year, time for Your Local Weather Authority’s winter outlook!
We’ve spent the past couple of months pouring over the data and it looks like this winter will feature snowfall totals a little below-average.
If our forecast is verified, this would continue a trend we saw in 2019-2020 as well as 2020-2021.
Forecast Rationale
The main thing we’re keeping an eye on with this year’s winter forecast is La Niña. That’s the cool water off the coast of Perú.
Now, oddly enough, that usually means weaker winds in the Eastern U.S., which actually favors more tropical activity, so we looked back at years similar to this one to see how much snow we averaged across all five of our zones.
It wound up being about a foot. Any other year, the average snowfall across all five of our zones is a foot and a half.
Trouble with Types
With above-average temperatures forecasted for this winter, that can make it difficult when it comes to forecasting what type of precipitation we’ll see.
Temperatures have to be below freezing throughout the atmosphere in order for that precipitation to reach the ground as snow
When we have warmer air higher aloft in the atmosphere and depending on how deep that warm layer is, that precipitation will eventually melt and either fall as sleet, freezing rain or rain.
In other words, those above-average temperatures could make it difficult for us to see average snowfall totals.
More in the Mountains
The mountains are expected to get more snow this year due to a process called orographic lift.
The moist air rises up the mountains and it cools as it does so. Eventually, it reaches the top and condenses into snow and falls from the sky.
On the other side of the mountains, the air sinks on the way down and it dries out; leading to less precipitation.
There’s a direct correlation between the elevation and the average snow per year.
Up at about 5,000 feet is Snowshoe, where 180 inches of snow falls per year. Further down the mountain, you can see Hot Springs and Blacksburg get between 20 and 30 inches of snow. The lowest elevations, Roanoke and Danville, receive much less snow per year.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Based on historical data, January and February are the snowiest months for us, which makes sense as these two are also the coldest months.
How much snow are you going to be shoveling?
- Southside: Three to seven inches
- Lynchburg area: Six to 12 inches
- Roanoke, Covington, Clifton Forge, Lexington and Franklin County: Eight to 14 inches
- New River Valley and Mountain Empire: 13 to 19 inches
- Highlands, Mountain Lake, Wintergreen and Mount Rogers: 15 to 21 inches
If our forecast verifies, this would be the third consecutive year with below-average snowfall totals.
Below are the zone-by-zone averages, based on historical data.
Now, let’s sit back and see what Mother Nature decides to throw at us. We’ll be ready.
Watch Chief Meteorologist Jeff Haniewich and Meteroloist Justin McKee discuss this year’s winter forecast below: