Happy Monday and welcome to another edition of Beyond The Forecast!
We received word from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on Monday that they believe La Niña conditions are coming in the next six months, prompting a watch.
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ENSO news: A La Niña watch has been issued by @NWSCPC. What does that mean? @NOAAClimate explains: https://t.co/ThUxqilriK #Climate #ENSO #LaNiña pic.twitter.com/R9qCxOVA4W
— NOAA NCEI Climate (@NOAANCEIclimate) July 19, 2021
You’re probably yelling at your phone or computer screen, “Justin, what in the world is La Niña and why do I care as a Virginia resident?” Well, let me tell you!
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a variation in winds and sea-surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific that tends to have an impact on the weather in the United States and elsewhere. There are three phases: El Niño (warmer temperatures), neutral (near-normal temperatures) and La Niña (cooler temperatures).
When in the La Niña phase, the tropics can get more active. That could be bad news for folks on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States this or next hurricane season, but I’m going to focus more on how Southwest and Central Virginia will be affected. That means we have to look ahead to winter.
If the La Niña conditions are met, it appears we’ll have a warmer and drier winter than average in our corner of the Commonwealth.
This would be bad news for snow-lovers! And yes, I know it’s weird to be talking about snow in the middle of July.
Since 1950, only 26% of La Niña winters in Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville and Blacksburg have had above-average snowfall.
If the CPC’s forecast is correct and we do end up in a La Niña, we will certainly let you know about it. It will have a big impact on this year’s winter forecast, which will come out in November as it does every year.
Switching gears to your forecast, we started the week with some rain, clouds and cooler temperatures. However, mercury will be on the rise in the days ahead! Meteorologist Chris Michaels breaks it down in our daily forecast article.
You can always get specific forecast details for your zone, whether it’s the Roanoke Valley, Southside, the Highlands or elsewhere around Southwest and Central Virginia, anytime at WSLS.com/weather. Know your zone!
In case you missed it, we’re posting great weather and science content on WSLS.com. Here are a few links from the past week to check out:
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-- Justin McKee