ROANOKE, Va. – The video above is from a 12:15 p.m. forecast update by Chris Michaels.
For a winter that started calm and uneventful, it’s certainly picked up the pace in the last couple of weeks. That pace goes full steam ahead over the next five-to-seven days.
Fortunately, we’ll be well above freezing during the afternoon Thursday. Despite the overcast, temperatures will mainly be in the 40s area-wide.
Timing
As moisture moves in during the afternoon, we’ll start with mainly rain. I wouldn’t be worried about slippery/icy road conditions at this point. We have time on our side, thankfully!
As colder air seeps farther south, we gradually start to see things changing over. This process starts near and north of US-460 shortly after suppertime.
As the night wanes on, we’ll notice that wintry mix creep farther to the south. So, it will rain longest the farther south you go before changing over to some freezing rain and sleet.
The more substantial precipitation exits in the early morning hours Friday, but we’ll still see some patches of drizzle and/or freezing drizzle throughout the day.
Updated Totals
Due to the warm ground and the rain beforehand, we don’t expect a ton of snow to accumulate near the US 460 corridor (Blacksburg-Roanoke-Bedford-Lynchburg-Appomattox). That’s why we have you in the 0-1″ blob. Could we see an isolated higher total within that blob? Sure, if the snow comes down heavily enough, that could happen.
If you want a little more snow (not a lot), you’ve got to go a little farther north. Areas from Troutville and New Castle to the north can expect anywhere from 1-3″ of snow. This may start on the grass before taking to the roads.
The farther south you go, the smaller chance of snow you have. That’s where we expect mostly rain before changing over to freezing rain. Because of the later start time, we’ve lowered the ice totals a little bit. In fact, some areas close to and west of I-77 may see the moisture leave before temperatures fall to 32°.
Still, a glaze to a tenth of an inch can make for some slick spots. Some of this may only be on road signs and trees, but never assume that a wet spot on the road is just wet in cases like this.
Potential Impacts
While this may not be the mother of all winter storms, this still will come with some impacts.
As we mentioned above, some roads could get messy Thursday night into Friday morning. We’re no superintendents, but given this forecast - we could very well see some schedule changes for schools Friday.
As for the threat for power outages, that’s fairly low. You usually don’t see that occur unless you have 0.25″ of ice accumulation or more. The wind won’t be overly strong either, thankfully.
Looking Ahead
The pattern doesn’t offer much relief in the days ahead. While we’ll be left with drizzle Friday, Saturday comes with another threat of ice. This could be more significant than the Thursday night to Friday morning event. We’d plan to stay put Saturday, and plan ahead for the possibility of power outages in this case.
We’ll be mostly dry and in the 40s Valentine’s Day, before another wintry mix potential arrives late Monday night into Tuesday of next week.