Happy Monday!
While your favorite coffee shop like Dunkin’ or Starbucks may have already brought back pumpkin spice lattes, fall doesn’t officially begin until Sept. 22.
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However, in the meteorological community, we define the seasons a bit differently than coffee shops or equinoxes.
“Meteorological” fall starts Sept. 1 and runs through the end of November. On average, we see a big dip in temperatures over those three months. The average high in Roanoke on September 1 is in the low 80s, while in late November, it falls to the low 50s!
Snow becomes possible during meteorological fall in our area.
The earliest Roanoke, Lynchburg and Blacksburg have received snow is the last week of October, while the earliest measurable snow in Danville happened in mid-November.
Now you’re probably wondering, what’s this fall looking like? The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued its outlooks for the September through November period across the country. This fall is looking WARM, y’all.
All of the orange and red you see on the map above means that the CPC believes meteorological fall will be warmer than normal in the contiguous United States. If you look closely at our corner of the Commonwealth, we have a 40 to 50 percent chance at above-average temperatures.
Warmer fall temperatures are becoming more prevalent in Roanoke.
Climate Central analyzed the average temperature during the season from 1970 to 2019 and found that the Star City has warmed by 2.5 degrees during autumn.
The CPC also issued a precipitation outlook for the new season, but there’s not much information we can glean from it locally. The organization is giving us equal chances at above or below normal precipitation.
The takeaway from all these maps and numbers?
Expect warmer temperatures than we would typically get in fall, but the cooler air will become more likely by late October or November. It’s too early to say if this fall will feature an early snowfall, but you can bet we’ll let you know about it if we see it coming.
Switching gears to this week’s forecast, you’ve likely noticed the rain and cooler temperatures to start the week.
Rain and/or storm coverage won’t be as high in the days ahead and we expect the heat to return by Wednesday. Your Local Weather Authority meteorologist Chris Michaels broke down the forecast and gave a tropical update in our daily weather article.
You can always get specific forecast details for your zone, whether it’s the Roanoke Valley, the New River Valley, Southside or elsewhere around Southwest and Central Virginia, anytime at WSLS.com/weather. Know your zone!
In case you missed it, we’re posting great weather content on WSLS.com. Here are a few links from the past week to check out:
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-- Justin McKee