ROANOKE, Va. – Thursday morning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. In it, they call for an above-average season.
The forecast calls for 13- to 19 named storms and 6 to 10 hurricanes. 3 to 6 of those storms are forecast to become Category 3 hurricanes or stronger. That doesn’t mean that all these storms will make landfall in the United States.
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This means that these storms will develop in the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and/or the Caribbean Sea.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, but has gotten a head start this year with Tropical Storm Arthur. The other names are listed below.
In NOAA’s forecast, they cite the following for reasons of a more active season in 2020.
1. Lack of El Niño: Cooler to neutral water temperatures in the eastern Pacific result in minimal wind shear in the Atlantic basin. This means that more major/stronger hurricanes can form.
2. Warmer sea-surface temperatures: The water in the Gulf and in many portions of the Atlantic is warmer-than-average. Tropical systems feed off of water that’s 80° F or warmer.
3. Climatology: The trend has been for more frequent, slower-moving systems.