ROANOKE, Va. – Multiple National Weather Service offices have been surveying storm damage left by this past Sunday and Monday’s severe weather outbreak. As of yesterday, a total 105 tornadoes were confirmed.
Updated storm survey results from the April 12-13 tornado outbreak. A total of 105 tornadoes have been confirmed (2 EF4s, 9 EF3s, 19 EF2s, 52 EF1's, 23 EF0s). By state..AL-21, GA-20, SC-16, LA-15, MS-12, NC-12, TX-6, MD-2, TN-1, FL-1. Combined total length of paths..771.86 miles! pic.twitter.com/vp85DrlA6w
— NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) April 16, 2020
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So, the last thing the Deep South and Southeast want to hear is that severe weather is possible. In the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 4 outlook (see the graphic at the top of this article), however, that’s exactly the case Sunday (04/19/2020). We’ll dive into the dynamics and show you whether or not that severe weather potential comes up this way next week.
THE WEATHER PATTERN
Severe weather happens most often in April and May, as storm systems pull in warm, moist air from the Gulf. Many parts of Canada still have snow on the ground. Cold air from that snow sits over the layer of warm, moist air. This creates a very unstable environment, which is conducive for stronger storm systems and then stronger thunderstorms.
The Sunday system that we’ve alluded to already doesn’t appear as deep, nor as strong, as the one that swept through the Deep South and Southeast on Easter Sunday. However, this will be interacting with the warm, humid air of the Gulf of Mexico.
This provides enough juice in the atmosphere for strong-to-severe storms farther south, as well as enough moisture for some heavy rain. Provided that the storm’s center stays farther south, we’ll be on the cooler side of it and avoid severe weather next Monday morning. However, we may still be in line for some heavy rain the closer you get to the North Carolina-Virginia line.
(Some of the rain you see below is from a minor system on Saturday morning. Most of it, however, comes Monday morning.)
After the Sunday-Monday system, the weather remains calm for us throughout the middle of next week. The pattern later next week (4/23-4/24/2020) is worth watching. Here’s why:
An area of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will help guide a storm system into the Desert Southwest. Even in the winter, most strong systems that impact the Southeast originate from this region. They get stronger east of the Rockies, as cooler air moves over the warm, moist air from the Gulf. That’s what forecast data is hinting at late next week (as shown below).
This means at least the possibility of more severe weather in the Plains and Southeast between Wednesday and Friday of next week. In order for our area to see severe weather, that system would have to lift north. Whether or not that happens is still up for interpretation/speculation.
WILL WE SEE SEVERE WEATHER?
• The severe weather threat for our region Sunday into Monday looks relatively low. For it to stay that way, this particular storm system will have to stay south of us.
• There’s at least the possibility that we see strong-to-severe storms around Friday of next week, if we can be on the warm side of that storm system. We’ll be sure to keep you posted, as we continue to analyze the latest forecast data each day.
Regardless, you should always have a severe weather plan in place. After all, we do get some nasty storms around here. The past two Aprils have been harsh reminders of that, with the Timberlake/Elon tornado anniversary just passing and the Franklin County tornado anniversary this coming weekend.