ROANOKE, Va. – While a few showers will be possible Tuesday, we don’t expect anything significant to develop out of that. By late Wednesday, things really start to change for us.
The first thing we need to watch is a warm front sagging south, as that will lead to some cooler air dropping by. A few showers may develop as that’s passing through.
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This will provide the focal point for an area of heavier rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Where that area of heavier rain is located depends on the warm front’s location. At the moment, the better chance looks to be south of US 460.
A very strong area of low pressure develops in the Gulf, and pulls in a lot of moisture. This will set up a narrow band of intense rain and perhaps some strong wind late Thursday night into early Friday morning. It’s likely that this band sets up east of the Blue Ridge Parkway, favoring anywhere from Rocky Mount to Lynchburg and Southside.
Forecast data indicates that this band could drop 1-3″ of rain within a 6-hour time span, which would likely lead to flooding. We’ll especially need to watch some area rivers, including (but not limited to) the James, Maury and Dan Rivers.
In addition to the heavy rain and flood threat, damaging wind gusts will be possible according to the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday night.
Once this system passes, we’ll see some snow on our favored west-facing slopes through Friday. Otherwise, Friday will be colder and windy. The next system of interest comes late Saturday into Sunday morning, and has the potential to drop some accumulating snow on parts of the area.
We won’t put the cart before the horse, though. A lot still has to be ironed out with that, and our main focus for now is on the heavy rain/flood threat.