ROANOKE, Va. – Halloween is now just one week away, so now is a good time to begin talking about the weather leading up to it. This is actually something we've been tracking over the last few days on social media and on Virginia Today.
The Overall Pattern
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When forecasting, a lot of meteorologists (myself included) like to start with a top down approach. We'll look high up into the atmosphere to show the overall pattern.
Leading up to Halloween, the pattern is very amplified. Meaning the air flow is moving very much north to south, as opposed to a quicker west-to-east movement.
So how could this possibly affect the forecast? When you have an amplified pattern like this, there's going to be a cold front to separate the warm, moist air from the cold, dry air.
Scenario #1: Wet at times and getting colder
The European forecast model shows that cold front close by around Halloween. This would imply wetter weather at times next Thursday, with colder air (and perhaps snow) well northwest of us.
Scenario #2: Very cold, dry and breezy
The GFS model shows this front way farther east than what the European model suggests, implying much colder air around for Halloween. We'd be dry and breezy in this situation.
What do we do with this information?
As you can see, the two scenarios are drastically different from each other. In my experience dealing with such an amplified pattern, you usually see these forecast models coming to some sort of middle ground. In fact, when you average out multiple variations of these forecast models - that's what seems to be most likely at this point.
If I were a betting man, I'd say to expect some showers on Halloween with highs in the 60s. Trick-or-Treat temperatures will likely be in the 50s, with either a few lingering showers or rain beginning to move east.
As always, make sure to stay tuned for updates on the forecast on air, online, on the StormTeam 10 app and on social media. This is 7 days away still, so it may be a few days before the picture becomes clearer.