ROANOKE, Va. – As of 5 p.m. Saturday, the National Hurricane Center found that Florence has strengthened a little bit. It is likely to become a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday night or Sunday, with rapid intensification into a major hurricane beyond that time frame.
Later in the week, Florence is expected to either directly hit the east coast or remain just offshore. The window of opportunity for this storm to skirt out to sea is shrinking.
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This is reflected in roughly 25 versions of the GFS (American) forecast model...
...as well as the 51 versions of the European forecast model.
A very strong area of high pressure offshore will guide Florence towards the East Coast. Where exactly that happens is still up for debate. However, aircraft reconnaissance on the storm has begun, which should hopefully bring a clearer picture in our forecast data.
How does this impact us here at home?
A track towards Charleston-Myrtle Beach-Wilmington would put us in line for very heavy rain, a flood threat and severe weather threat Friday and perhaps even Saturday. A track more towards the Outer Banks or Virginia Beach would put us on the drier side of the storm.
That's why the exact track is important for us to follow too, even this far inland. If you have family, friends or interests in the Carolinas, they need to start making a plan now. For example, my parents live in the Raleigh-Durham area and have started stocking up on water and gasoline for their generator.
Both North Carolina and South Carolina are under a State of Emergency, as a sign of preparedness for a potential impact.