BUDAPEST – Dozens of European leaders will be gingerly seeking ways to address common challenges together during a one-day summit in Hungary's capital on Thursday. Yet despite myriad economic problems and two wars in the neighborhood, all eyes will be glued on Washington to see whether the pivotal U.S. election will cause a political rift throughout the continent.
The trans-Atlantic relationship will doubtless change after the vote, leaders and experts have said. But the question is whether that change might be seismic under Donald Trump, who is on the verge of clinching the presidency.
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Trump has 267 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Oval Office. A win in Alaska or any of the outstanding battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona or Nevada — would send the Republican former president back to the Oval Office.
For summit host and ardent Trump fan, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, things were already crystal clear even as votes were still being counted. “Good morning, Hungary! On the way to a beautiful victory. It’s already in the bag!”
And European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Trump, and said that the EU and U.S. “are more than just allies. We are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens.”
“Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens. Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship,” she said.
Economic relations were anything but stable during Trump's last presidency.
His administration slapped taxes on EU steel and aluminum in 2018 on the claim that foreign products produced by American allies were a threat to U.S. national security. Europeans and other allies reacted with duties on U.S.-made motorcycles, bourbon, peanut butter and jeans, among other items.
The impact of the U.S. election result could be felt in Europe for years to come, on issues including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as migration or climate change.
“All this is putting peace, stability and prosperity at risk in our region,” said the invitation letter to the leaders of the European Political Community, which unites almost 50 nations across Europe, barring Russia and Belarus.
Among the leaders likely to attend on Thursday is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is expected to make another plea for more aid as his country fends off Moscow's invasion. The timing is laden with significance as Trump has vowed to end the war “within 24 hours” of being elected — something leaders in Kyiv interpret as an impending evaporation of U.S. support should Trump win.
Orbán makes plain his support for Trump
Not so long ago, such a meeting — which is also expected to include leaders from non-EU countries like Turkey, Serbia and the United Kingdom — would end with praise for European unity and a common political direction. Yet with Orbán as the host of the summit, friction is as good as assured.
Orbán, who has openly thrown his weight behind Trump and argued that the former president is a “man of peace,” predicted a Trump victory and suggested that civil and criminal cases against him were the result of a politically motivated U.S. Justice Department — a common Trump refrain.
Having played the obstructionist for years within the 27-nation EU, Orbán now holds the bloc's rotating presidency, giving him a more prominent platform and making him the host of Thursday's EPC summit, as well as another gathering of EU leaders on Friday.
The presidency under Orbán caused turmoil from day one, when he declared “Make Europe Great Again” the motto of his six months in charge. It was a strikingly clear reference to his affection for Trump, which he followed up with unannounced visits to Moscow and Beijing, angering EU leaders who said he wasn't acting on their behalf.
In response to Orbán's self-styled “peace mission,” many EU countries began boycotting presidency meetings in Budapest, or sending only lower-level bureaucrats rather than ministers. However, no boycotts are expected for this week's summits.
While Orbán has cast the result of U.S. elections as pivotal for Europe's future — he's even delayed passing Hungary's 2025 national budget until after a new president is elected — not all EU leaders are comfortable with the bloc's fate being so tightly bound up with the movements of American politics.
Donald Tusk, the center-right prime minister of Poland, said that Europe must forge a more independent path that is less sensitive to changes across the Atlantic.
"Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us, on the condition that Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength," Tusk said in the days before the summit. “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”