SALEM, Va. – Roanoke College released a poll on Aug. 2 that asked likely Virginian voters multiple questions regarding their opinions on candidates, who they would vote for, if they feel the country is on the right path, among others. The majority of interviews were conducted over the phone. 691 people were interviewed between Aug. 12 and 16. Roanoke College said quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented.
The Roanoke College typically conducts these polls at least four times a year, with some variation. This is the first major poll conducted in Virginia since President Biden dropped his bid as the Democratic candidate and Vice President Harris became the Democratic nominee, as well as the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.
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WSLS 10 News anchor Samuel King interviewed Harry Wilson, the senior political analyst at Roanoke College on Tuesday.
Are we moving in the right or wrong direction?
When interviewees were asked if they think the country is moving in the right or wrong direction, 27% said the right direction and 71% said we were moving in the wrong direction. In the past two years, the percentage of participants that have said we are moving in the wrong direction has stayed between 68%-74%. Those that have said we are moving in the right direction have been between 24%-28%.
Approval ratings of political figures
When asked if they approve or disapprove of the way Glenn Youngkin is handling his job as governor, 59% approved and 36% disapproved. This is the highest approval rating Governor Youngkin has received from the Roanoke College poll yet. He has consistently stayed above 50% approval for his time as governor, according to the polls conducted.
Joe Biden’s approval rating has not changed since May, with 35% approval, and 62% disapproval, which is up 1% from May. President Biden’s approval has been on a decline since his 50% approval in September 2021, with a few small spikes. Inversely, the disapproval rating has generally gotten higher.
Congress also had an approval rating of 20% and a disapproval rating of 77%, however, according to previous Roanoke College polls, the approval rating of Congress has always been quite low, with the highest being 27% in November of 2022.
Favorability of political figures
Please note that, while favorability tends to correlate with approval, they are not the same statistic.
Glenn Youngkin received a rating of 54% favorability and 40% unfavorability. His favorability is up 5% since May.
Joe Biden saw an increase in both favorability and unfavorability since May. 37% say they see him favorably (up from 36%) and 61% see him as unfavorable (up from 58%). The increase in both is a result of fewer interviewees saying they were mixed/unsure or refused the question.
Donald Trump’s favorability rating has gone up consistently since August 2023. He is currently at 40% favorability and 57% unfavorability. He is 4 percentage points more favorable than he was in May. His running mate, Senator JD Vance was polled for the first time, with 32% seeing him favorably, and 55% seeing him as unfavorable. When asked about their enthusiasm level for Vance being Trump’s pick as running mate, 20% said they were “enthusiastic,” 27% said they were satisfied, 30% said they were dissatisfied, and 14% said they were angry.
Kamala Harris’s favorability was polled for the first time by the college as well. She received a rating of 43% favorability and 53% unfavorability. Her running mate, Tim Walz, received a 34% favorability rating and a 51% unfavorability rating. 25% of respondents also said they were “enthusiastic” about Tim Walz as Harris’s pick, 27% said they were satisfied, 30% said they were dissatisfied, and 14% said they were angry. Questions about enthusiasm levels for the running mate picks were rotated depending on the voter.
Senator Tim Kaine’s favorability has less data from the college, as they’ve only polled this in years he has been up for reelection. He is currently at 50% favorability and 41% unfavorability. This is a 7-point increase in favorability since May, and a 2-point increase in unfavorability. 15% of respondents answered “don’t know” in May, and 8% answered “don’t know” this time around. This is drastically higher than his opponent Hung Cao, who was polled for the first time by the college. 28% of respondents saw him as favorable, while 47% saw him as unfavorable. 24% either didn’t know or refused the question.
How are respondents planning to vote?
Participants were also asked who they would vote for if the election were held today and they had to decide who to vote for right now (it should be noted that they only asked this to people who said they were at least “somewhat likely” to vote). Please note that this poll was conducted prior to Robert F. Kennedy suspending his presidential bid and choosing to back Donald Trump.
When not including third-party candidates, 47% of participants said they would vote for Kamala Harris, and 44% said they would vote for Donald Trump. This is a massive change from May’s poll, which showed 42% of people saying they would vote for Biden, and 42% saying they would vote for Trump. Those who said they would vote “other” decreased by 9% since May.
When third-party candidates were added in, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, and Cornel West, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump dropped 2 percentage points, with Harris being at 45% and Trump ending up at 42%. 6% said they would vote for RFK, while other candidates remained at 2% or less.
“In a race that could well be decided by 1% or 2%, a third party candidate polling even 3% could greatly influence who wins between Trump and Harris. That wouldn’t be surprising, and we’ve seen things like that in Virginia. We’ve seen things like that nationally before.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.
Interviewees were also asked if they were interviewed prior to Biden dropping out of the election, who they would vote for. In that scenario, 37% said they would have voted for Biden, and 43% said they would have voted for Trump.
When asked who they would vote for in the senatorial election, Tim Kaine holds a large lead over Hung Cao. 49% of respondents said they would vote for Kaine, while 38% said they would vote for Cao.
Respondents were also asked what the most important issue is to them in this election, with 48% saying the economy, 15% saying immigration, and 16% saying abortion. Crime received 4%, foreign affairs received 6%, and 11% of respondents said “something else.”
“I would view Virginia as competitive in 2024. I would certainly say at this point, either major party candidate could win in Virginia and I would not be surprised either way.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.
Crosstabs
The polling data also provided select crosstabs, such as how Democrats, Republicans, and Independent voters answered certain questions. As expected, those who identify as Democrats have higher favorability and approval ratings of Democratic figures, and Republicans have higher favorability and approval ratings of Republican figures.
The U.S. Congress has a low approval rating overall (28% from Democrats, 21% from Republicans, and 12% from Independents). The Supreme Court has a favorability rating higher among Republicans (72%) than Democrats (25%), with 47% of Independents viewing it favorably. This is all to be expected, as both the House and Senate are nearly evenly split amongst the two major parties, and 6 of the 9 members of the Supreme Court were selected by Republican presidents.
Independents also had split views on the candidates. Youngkin was the only polled figure that achieved a favorability ranking of over 50% from Independents. In general, Republican candidates had a slightly higher favorability from Independent voters, namely with Trump, Youngkin, and the Supreme Court.
The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought. The news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, but her three-point lead is still within the margin of error. One big takeaway continues to be the chasm between the views of Democrats and Republicans. None of it is new, but it is remarkable that partisans interpret everything through different lenses.”
Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.
The poll contained over 45 questions, so less significant topics were not covered here. If you’d like all information, as well as the raw polling data, you can visit the Roanoke College website here.