ROANOKE, Va. – Happy Monday, and welcome to another edition of Beyond The Forecast!
Fall is just days away, but we are already getting questions about what to expect this winter. Our winter forecast will come out in November, in which we include multiple pieces to a very complicated puzzle.
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Here, we’ll discuss one of the main features of a long-term forecast - the El Niño Southern Oscillation. I bring this up because its mean/average pattern is showing up later this week.
Could it be a sign of things to come in the winter months?
NOAA has increased the chance of the El Niño heading into the winter months.
This refers to warmer ocean waters off the coast of Peru, so why would we care about that?
In a ‘typical’ El Niño year, that would mean more high pressure over the Western U.S., which would bring them warmer, drier weather. In the Eastern U.S., it would lead to more low pressure. That would bring more frequent storm systems.
In looking at the pattern for the weekend of 9/23-9/24, you can see that pattern taking shape. We’re definitely not cool enough for snow at this point, but this is a pattern that would require more attention 3-5 months from now.
On average, more than half of El Niño winters produce above-average snowfall in Southwest and Central Virginia. That certainly doesn’t blow you away.
Other factors such as solar activity, cold air and snow cover in Siberia and tropical activity need to be taken into account.
Think of the atmosphere as your budget.
If it spends a lot of energy (money) in one season, then it doesn’t spend a lot in the following season.
With the tropics being as active as they’ve been in the Atlantic, does that put a lid on how much energy will be spent on winter storm systems?
That’s something we’ll dig into over the next two months before releasing our official winter forecast.
For our most detailed forecasts, you can download our weather app and get Meteorologist Chris Michaels and Parker Beasley’s latest updates online.
You can always get specific forecast details for your zone, whether it’s the Roanoke Valley, the Lynchburg area, the New River Valley or elsewhere around Southwest and Central Virginia, anytime at WSLS.com/weather. Know your zone!
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-- Chris Michaels